ComRes confirmed as most accurate 2015 General Election pollster

Although the 2015 General Election result has come as something of a surprise to most observers, ComRes achieved accuracy which was ahead of the rest of the field.

Our final call was within the statistical margin of error on every single party (one of only two pollsters to achieve this), and the average difference across the figures was ±1.3 percentage points. This is the most accurate of any of the British Polling Council members (the established pollsters who abide by a shared set of rules and regulations).

ComRes Final Call Actual Result (GB) Difference
Conservative 35% 37.7% +2.7
Labour 34% 31.1% -2.9
Lib Dem 9% 8.0% -1.0
UKIP 12% 12.9% +0.9
Green 4% 3.8% -0.2
Other 6% 6.4% +0.4
AVERAGE: ±1.3

 

Andrew Hawkins, ComRes Chairman said, “This is the culmination of a huge amount of hard work across a really impressive team of experts. We have steadily built on our experience and skill across the previous two general elections, so it is tremendous that the effort and investment have paid off. We are wholeheartedly committed to continuously improving the quality, relevance and creativity of our political polling. This is extremely encouraging in spurring us on to even greater efforts.”

“It was fantastic working with media partners ITV News and the Daily Mail through this long and exciting election. And our success is a reflection of our investment in a top team of pollsters and analysts to drive our political and media work under the expert leadership of Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling.”

“We consistently disputed the “neck-and-neck” narrative which had taken hold in the media, and our polls showed not a single Labour lead throughout 2015. Nonetheless, we recognise that even our poll – the most accurate of the election – could have been better, and we will make a thorough assessment of the data and methodology. We are absolutely committed to upholding the reputation of the polling industry by producing highly accurate research.”

“We continue to innovate by testing new approaches, and in this same spirit of improvement, we share our analysis widely. Our analysts had already identified some of the issues – a disparity between telephone and online polls, and the accuracy of reported likelihood to vote – in a series of publicly available, pre-election articles which have been vindicated by last night’s results.”

 

Final figures for all British Polling Council pollsters releasing a “final call” poll

 

Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP Green Other AVERAGE ERROR
GE2015 Result (GB) 37.7% 31.1% 8.0% 12.9% 3.8% 6.4% -
ComRes 35% 34% 9% 12% 4% 6% 1.3%
Opinium 35% 34% 8% 12% 6% 5% 1.7%
Ipsos MORI 36% 35% 8% 11% 5% 5% 1.7%
YouGov 34% 34% 10% 12% 4% 6% 1.7%
ICM 34% 35% 9% 11% 4% 7% 1.9%
Populus 33% 33% 10% 14% 5% 6% 1.9%
Panelbase 31% 33% 8% 16% 5% 7% 2.2%
Survation 31% 31% 10% 16% 5% 7% 3.2%
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