Daily Mail EU Referendum Poll January 2016
VI poll plus questions on the EU Referendum

“Remain” has an 18 point lead over “Leave” on the EU referendum question according to a new ComRes poll for the Daily Mail. More than half (54%) of Britons say they would vote ‘Remain’ on the question of if a referendum were held tomorrow, while around a third (36%) say they would vote ‘Leave’. One in ten (10%) say they don’t know how they would vote.

The poll also shows that the British public are more likely to think that Britain’s national security would be better off if Britain remained a member of the EU (35%) than if Britain left the EU (24%). However, more than a third (36%) of Britons think staying or leaving the EU would make no difference to Britain’s national security.

  • While Conservative voters are split on the EU and national security (33% say better off if Britain remains, 30% if Britain leaves), a plurality of Labour voters think Britain’s national security would be better off if Britain remains a member of the EU (50% vs. 12% leave).

More than two in five (44%) British adults say they think the state of the British economy would be better off with Britain remaining a member of the EU, compared to around a quarter (23%) who feel the state of the economy would be better off if Britain left the EU.

  • Conservative and Labour voters are more likely to think the state of the British economy would be better off if Britain remains a member of the EU (43% and 63%).

On Westminster voting intention, Conservatives lead Labour by five points, 37% to 32%.

Con      37% (NC)

Lab       32% (-1)

LD        6% (-1)

UKIP     12% (+1)

Green   4% (-1)

SNP      4% (NC)

Other   3% (+1)

 

Figures in brackets show change from December. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

 

 

Full results:

EU Referendum

Q: If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question?

“Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”

% ComRes voter turnout model applied
Remain 54% (-2) 57%
Leave 36% (+1) 34%
Don’t know 10% (+2) 9%

Base: GB adults (n=1,006). Figures in brackets are based on December 2015.

  • Conservative voters are divided on this issue - around half (48%) say they would vote ‘remain’, while two in five (41%) say they would vote ‘leave’. A majority of Labour voters (76%) say they would vote to remain a member of the EU.
  • Young Britons aged 18-24 are more likely to say they would vote ‘remain’ (74%) than their older counterparts aged 65+ (40%).
  • UKIP supporters are more likely than Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrats to say they would vote leave (80%).
  • When ComRes voter turnout model, based on likelihood to vote, is applied, the lead of ‘remain’ rises from 18 percentage points to 23.

The EU and British interests

  1. Do you think each of the following would be better off if Britain remains a member of the EU or if Britain leaves the EU or does it make no difference?

 

Better off remaining a member of the EU Better off leaving the EU Makes no difference Don’t know
Britain’s national security 35% 24% 36% 5%
The state of the British economy 44% 23% 27% 6%

Base: GB adults (n=1,006)

  • There is considerable division among Conservative voters on the EU and national security. Similar proportions say Britain’s national security would be better off if Britain remained a member (33%), better off if Britain left (30%) and that it would make no difference (30%).
  • Half of Labour voters think Britain’s national security would be better off if the country remains a member of the EU (50%). Only around one in ten Labour voters (12%) think Britain’s national security would be better off if Britain left the EU. A third (34%) feel it would make no difference.
  • More than two in five (43%) of Conservative voters think the state of the British economy will be better off if Britain remains a member of the EU, compared to only one in five (19%) who think the economy would be better off should Britain leave the EU. More than three in five (63%) Labour voters feel the economy is better off in the EU.
  • A minority of voters for both parties think that membership of the EU would make no difference to the state of the British economy (29% Conservative, 22% Labour).
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Date Published
29th January 2016
Client
Daily Mail
Methodology
ComRes interviewed 1,006 GB adults by telephone between 22nd and 24th January 2016. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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