Daily Mail / ITV News Final Political Poll 6th May 2015
Final voting intention poll of 2015 campaign for Daily Mail and ITV News

In the final ComRes voting intention survey ahead of polling day tomorrow, the Conservatives are on course to win the popular vote. The party is on 35%, unchanged since the last ComRes telephone poll the Daily Mail and ITV News yesterday.

Labour, who have not had a lead in ComRes telephone polls in 2015, have failed to overturn the deficit during the campaign and are due to win 34% of the vote, up two points since yesterday.

The Liberal Democrats are on 9% having not recovered from a dramatic fall in support in the early stages of the Parliament from the 24% they won in Great Britain at the last election.

UKIP are set to come third in terms of the popular vote with 12% - up from 3% in 2010.

The Greens are on 4%.

Con 35% (NC)

Lab 34% (+2)

Lib Dem 9% (NC)

UKIP 12% (-2)

Green 4% (NC)

Others 6% (NC)

Changes in brackets from the last ComRes telephone poll, conducted between 3rd and 5th May 2015.

In England and Wales only, the Tories are on 37%, Labour on 36%, with the Liberal Democrats on 9% trailing UKIP on 12%.

ComRes Chairman Andrew Hawkins said: “Despite all the sound and fury of the campaign, the verdict is that there is no verdict.  This is the sisyphian election, with the party leaders heaving voters uphill only for them to slide down to pre-campaign support levels.  It must be as frustrating for the parties as it has been bewildering for voters, who clearly struggle to believe the myriad promises made.”

“Even at this late stage there is still a lot to play for with huge numbers of voters undecided.  Whatever the result, in the short term there is obviously a lot of deal-making to be done.  But in the longer run, the country needs to find a way to accommodate an electorate who are abandoning traditional party loyalties and who want what the main political parties are struggling to offer.”

Key points:

Undecided voters:

  • One in five of those who give a voting intention say that they may still change their mind (20%). Four in five (80%) say that they have “definitely decided” who to vote for.
  • In terms of the total number of undecided voters, 25% of those likely to vote either say they don’t know who they will vote for yet or may change their mind before tomorrow. This is down from 41% who said this last week.

 Cameron v. Miliband:

  • There is still a strong preference for David Cameron as Prime Minister over Ed Miliband – at this stage more than half of respondents (52%, compared to 51% last week) say that they prefer Mr Cameron to Mr Miliband.
  • Just three in ten prefer the Labour leader over Mr Cameron (31%, compared to 32% last week).

Findings in detail:

Undecided voters:

Q: Have you definitely decided the party you will vote for at the General Election or may you still change your mind?

  %
Definitely decided 80% (+14)
May still change my mind 20% (-14)

Base: All GB adults likely to vote and identifying with a party (n=836). Figures in brackets show percentage point change from 29th April (All GB adults likely to vote and giving a voting intention, n=790).

  • On the eve of polling day, one in five (20%) of those who give a voting intention say that they may still change their mind regarding who to vote for – this compares to 34% last week.
  • By contrast, four in five (80%) say that they have “definitely decided” who to vote for. This is up 14 percentage points from 66% last week.
  • In terms of the total number of undecided voters, 25% of those likely to vote either say they don’t know who they will vote for yet or may change their mind before tomorrow. This is down from 41% who said this last week.

Cameron v. Miliband:

Q: For the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your own view?

Option 1 % % Option 2 Don’t know
David Cameron would make a better Prime Minister than Ed Miliband 52% (+1) 31% (-1) Ed Miliband would make a better Prime Minister than David Cameron 17% (-)

Base: All GB adults (n=1,007). Figures in brackets show percentage point change from 29th April (All GB adults n=1,005).

  • With the election campaign now almost over, there is a widespread preference for David Cameron over Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. More than half of the public say that the Conservative leader would make a better PM than his Labour counterpart (52%), compared to just three in ten (31%) who prefer Mr Miliband to Mr Cameron.

 

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Date Published
6th May 2015
Client
Daily Mail / ITV News
Methodology
ComRes interviewed 1,007 GB adults by telephone between 5th and 6th May 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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