Daily Mail March 2016 Political Poll
Voting intention poll plus questions on the EU referendum and sugar tax

Voting intention

  • Labour has closed the gap on the Conservatives by 5 percentage points since February, with the Conservatives now leading by two points, the lowest lead they have held this parliament (37% vs. 35%).

EU Referendum

  • Since December 2015, there has been a shift of 11 points toward Britons saying they will probably or definitely vote for the UK to leave the EU rather than stay, in the upcoming referendum on the UK’s membership. When this question was tested in December 2015 the lead for those saying they would probably or definitely stay was 17 points, a gap now narrowed to 6 points.
  • Despite this closing of the gap, the British public are still more likely to say they will probably or definitely vote for the UK to stay in the EU than leave the EU (42% vs. 36%).

The EU and Turkey

  • A slim majority of British adults (52%) report that the EU agreeing to let Turkey join the EU would have no impact on how they may vote on the UK’s membership of the EU.
  • Of those who say it will have an impact, this is more likely to lead Britons to vote to leave the EU, than vote to stay in EU (34% vs. 8%).

Tax on sugary drinks

  • The majority of the British public do not think the new tax on sugary drinks will be effective in reducing obesity in Britain. Aroudn three in five (57%) say it will be either very or fairly ineffective, compared to around two in five (41%) who feel it will be very or fairly effective.
  • 48% of Conservatives voters believe the tax will be ineffective.

Full results:

EU Referendum

Q: Which of the following statements comes closest to the way you are most likely to vote in the referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union?

%
I will definitely vote for the UK to stay in the EU 28%

(+1)

I will probably vote for the UK to stay in the EU 14%

(-5)

I am undecided about which way I will vote 23%

(NC)

I will probably vote for the UK to leave the EU 14%

(+3)

I will definitely vote for the UK to leave the EU 22%

(+3)

NET: Stay 42%

(-5)

NET: Leave 36%

(+6)

Base: GB adults (n=1,002). Figures in brackets are % change since December 2015 (n=1,001).

  • The proportion of Britons who say they will probably (14%) and definitely (22%) vote for the UK to leave the EU has increased by three points each since December 2015.
  • The less passionate proponents of remaining in the EU, those who say they will probably vote to stay have decreased by 5 percentage points, to 14%.
  • Conservative voters are split down the middle, with 37% each saying they are probably or definitely likely to vote to stay, or leave the EU. Labour voters are more likely to say they’re probably or definitely likely to vote to stay, rather than to leave (61% vs. 23%).

The EU and Turkey

  1. If the European Union was to agree to let Turkey join the EU, what if any impact would this have on how you might vote at the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU?
%
It would have no impact 52%
It would make me more likely to vote for Britain to leave the EU 34%
It would make me more likely to vote for Britain to stay in the EU 8%
Don’t know 5%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002)

  • Younger Britons are more likely than their older counterparts to say that if the European Union let Turkey join the EU it would have no impact on their referendum vote. Around three in five (61%) of 25-34 year olds say it will have no impact, compared to 38% of those aged over 65.
  • Similar proportions of Conservative voters say Turkey joining the EU would have no impact on their vote (44%) as say it would make them more likely to vote for Britain to leave the EU (42%).
  • A majority of Labour voters say it would have no impact (64%), compared to a quarter (24%) would say it would make them more likely to vote for Britain to leave the EU.

 

Tax on sugary drinks

  1. On Wednesday the Chancellor, George Osborne, announced a new tax on drinks such as cola that have high levels of added sugar which will increase the price of these drinks. The money raised from this tax will be spent on sports in primary schools. How effective or ineffective do you think this tax on sugary drinks will be in reducing obesity in Britain?
%
Very effective 7%
Fairly effective 33%
Fairly ineffective 36%
Very ineffective 22%
Don’t know 2%
NET: Effective 41%
NET: Ineffective 57%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002).

  • Women are more optimistic on the effect of the tax than their male counterparts, with more than two in five (46%) feeling it will be effective in reducing obesity, compared to only around a third of men (35%).

Voting intention

Labour has closed the gap on the Conservatives by 5 percentage points since February, with the Conservatives now leading by two points. This is the smallest Conservative lead of this Parliament and reflects a number of other polls which have seen a swing away from the Conservatives in recent weeks.

Con      37% (-1)

Lab       35% (+4)

LD        7% (-1)

UKIP     9% (-3)

Green   4% (+1)

SNP      5% (+1)

Other   2% (-1)

Figures in brackets show change from February. Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

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Date Published
24th March 2016
Client
Daily Mail
Methodology
ComRes interviewed 1,002 GB adults by telephone between 18th and 20th March 2016. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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