Independent / Sunday Mirror June 2017 Voting Intention and Political Poll
The Prime Minister’s personal rating has turned negative for the first time in a ComRes poll since becoming Prime Minister, but the Conservative Party’s lead of 12 points is unchanged since last week.

Voting intention

Con      47%      (+1)

Lab       35%     (+1)

LD        8%        (NC)

UKIP     4%        (NC)

SNP      3%        (-1)

Green   1%        (-1)

Other   1%        (NC)

(Change compared to last poll published 28 May) 

 

The NHS, Brexit and national security appear to be the most important areas for the public at this election.

Q. Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of each of the following?

Favourable

Unfavourable Neither

Don’t know

NET Favourability score
Theresa May 39% 42% 16% 4% -3

(-12)

The Conservative Party 37% 43% 16% 4% -6

(+6)

The Labour Party 37% 42% 16% 4% -5

(+12)

Jeremy Corbyn 32% 47% 15% 5% -15

(+18)

The Green Party 28% 26% 38% 8% +2
The Liberal Democrats 20% 39% 35% 7% -19

(+8)

UKIP 19% 53% 23% 5% -34

(-8)

Nicola Sturgeon 17% 54% 22% 7% -37
Caroline Lucas 15% 23% 31% 31% -8
Tim Farron 14% 38% 35% 13% -24

(-9)

SNP 13% 51% 26% 10% -38
Paul Nuttall 8% 45% 28% 19% -37

(-5)

Base: All respondents (n=2,038). Brackets represent change since last tested (February 2017 and December 2016).

  • Theresa May’s ‘honeymoon’ as Prime Minister is surely over. In February she was the only party leader with a positive NET favourability score, but since then it has dropped 12 points to -3.
  • Despite an improvement in his favourability score (up 18 points since February), Jeremy Corbyn still lags behind Theresa May, with his NET score on -15 and hers on -3.

 

Q. Thinking about next week’s election on June 8th, for each of the following pairs of statements, please indicate which comes closest to your opinion. 

Statement     Statement Don’t know
I have definitely decided who I will vote for next Thursday 77% 16% I have not yet decided who I will vote for next Thursday 7%
Theresa May and the Conservative Party are likely to win the General Election 57% 19% Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are likely to win the General Election 24%
Theresa May and the Conservative Party have the best policies for people like me and my family 38% 44% Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party have the best policies for people like me and my family 18%
Jeremy Corbyn, not Theresa May, would make the best Prime Minister after the election 34% 49% Theresa May, not Jeremy Corbyn, would make the best Prime Minister after the election 17%
I prefer a parliament in which parties have to work together in government 28% 59% I prefer a parliament in which one party has an overall majority 13%

Base: All respondents (n=2,038)

  • Despite a politically very busy week, there has been minimal change in the public’s perceptions of Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn since last weekend.
  • Theresa May still leads Jeremy Corbyn as the best Prime Minister after the election (49% v 34%), but lags behind on whose policies are best for ‘people like me and my family’ (38% v 44%).
  • There has been an increase in the proportion who have definitely decided who they will vote for on June 8th (from 70% last week to 77% this week).
  • Although most (57%) expect Theresa May and the Conservatives to win the election, a significant minority (24%) don’t know.  

 

 Q. Which of the following outcomes are the most important to you for the upcoming election on June 8th?

Statement  %
Ensuring that the next government delivers improvements to the NHS 52%
Ensuring Britain has a strong team for the Brexit negotiations 47%
Having a government that will keep Britain secure from terrorism 42%
Having a government that best looks after the interests of hard working families 33%
Ensuring that the most vulnerable in society are looked after well 29%
Reducing the wealth gap between the rich and poor 28%
Having a Prime Minister who can represent Britain on the world stage 27%
Having a government that promises to protect people’s assets as they need more social care later in life 14%

Base: All respondents (n=2,038) 

  • Approaching three in four (72%) Conservative voters say ensuring Britain has a strong team for Brexit negotiations is one of the most important outcomes for them following the election, almost three times the proportion of Labour voters (26%) who say the same.
  • For Labour voters, the NHS is the most important outcome; two thirds (68%) say ensuring that the next government delivers improvements to the NHS is one of the most important outcomes for them following the election, compared to two in five (38%) Conservative voters who say the same.
  • For the majority (52%) of undecideds, ensuring that the next government delivers improvements to the NHS is also one of the most important outcomes. Two in five (42%) undecided say having a government that will keep Britain secure from terrorism, the same proportion as those who have definitely decided who they are voting for.
  • Voters who have definitely decided who they are voting for are more likely than undecided voters to say that one of the most important outcomes of the election for them is having a Prime Minister who can represent Britain on the world stage (30% v 20%).
  • Half (50%) of voters aged 65+ list having a government that will keep Britain secure from terrorism as important, yet just three in ten (31%) of those aged 18-24 say the same. This older age group are also more likely to list having a Prime Minister who can represent Britain on the world stage as important, two in five (39%) state this, twice the proportion of those aged 18-24 (20%).
  • Only 21% of those aged over 65 say that having a government that promises to protect people’s assets as they need more social care in later life is in their top three most important outcomes of the election. Despite criticism of the Conservatives’ social care funding reforms, this does not appear to correlate with the priorities of this group, who are far more focused on Brexit negotiations and the NHS (61% and 54%).
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Date Published
3rd June 2017
Client
Independent / Sunday Mirror
Methodology
ComRes interviewed 2,038 GB adults online between 31st May and 2nd June 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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