ITV London / LBC London Mayoral Poll March 2016
ITV London/LBC Mayoral Poll

NEW POLL: SADIQ KHAN LEADS ZAC GOLDSMITH BY SIX POINTS IN MAYORAL RACE

With seven weeks to go until London’s Mayoral election, a new poll by ComRes for ITV News London and LBC reveals that Sadiq Khan leads Zac Goldsmith by six points: 53% to 47%.

Tom Mludzinski, Director of Political Polling, ComRes said: "This first in a series of polls shows that the race to become Mayor of London is by no means over. While Sadiq Khan enjoys a small lead, and will draw comfort from the fact the he leads Zac Goldsmith on the two most important characteristics voters want from their Mayor, the high levels of people saying they don't know which candidate is best on these characteristics shows that many people are still getting to know both Zac and Sadiq. How voters react when they see and hear more from the candidates could be crucial in swinging the election either way."

When deciding who to vote for, Londoners say that the most important characteristic of the candidate is that they understand the needs of Londoners (60%), and that they will stand up for Londoners (40%).

At the current time, Sadiq Khan leads Zac Goldsmith on both of the most important characteristics: 43% choose the Labour candidate when it comes to who is best at understanding the needs of Londoners (compared to 27% who say Goldsmith). Khan also leads Goldsmith 41% to 29% on who is thought would be best at standing up for Londoners.

Public transport and the cost of housing are considered by Londoners the key priorities for the next Mayor. Londoners are most likely to say public transport should be one of the biggest priorities (54%), alongside house prices (54%) and the cost of renting homes (52%).

Voting intention

With seven weeks to go until the election, Sadiq Khan leads Zac Goldsmith by six points: 53% to 47%. On first preferences, the Labour candidate is on 42% compared to 39% for the Conservative Zac Goldsmith. However, when the second preferences for those voting for another candidate are taken into account, Mr Khan’s lead is 6 points:

First round Run-off
Conservative candidate, Zac Goldsmith 39% 47%
Labour candidate, Sadiq Khan 42% 53%
Liberal Democrat candidate, Caroline Pidgeon 6%
Green Party candidate, Sian Berry 6%
UKIP candidate, Peter Whittle 5%
Respect candidate, George Galloway 1%
A candidate for another party 1%

Base: London adults likely to vote and expressing a voting intention (n=816).

 

Important in deciding votes

When deciding who to vote for, Londoners say that the most important characteristic of the candidate is that they understand the needs of Londoners (60%), and that they will stand up for Londoners (40%).

Q: Which, if any, of the following are the most important to you personally in deciding which of the candidates to vote for. Which candidate you feel…

%
Understand the needs of Londoners 60%
Will stand up for Londoners 41%
Will keep London safe from terrorist attacks 31%
Will be an ambassador for London around the world 12%
Will have a good relationship with the national government in Westminster 11%
Has the best position on the EU referendum 11%
None of these 2%
Don’t know 4%

Base: London adults (n=1,011).

  • Both Labour and Conservative voters are most likely to say the most important characteristic is who understands the needs of Londoners (71% and 53% respectively).
  • Keeping London safe is more important for Zac Goldsmith voters than Sadiq Khan voters (41% and 23% respectively).

Zac vs Sadiq

At the current time, Sadiq Khan leads Zac Goldsmith on both of the most important characteristics: 43% choose the Labour candidate when it comes to who is best at understanding the needs of Londoners (compared to 27% who say Goldsmith). Khan also leads Goldsmith 41% to 29% on who is thought would be best at standing up for Londoners.

Zac Goldsmith leads Sadiq Khan on keeping London safe (31% to 24%), being a global ambassador for London (39% to 29%) and having a good relationship with the national government in Westminster (49% to 20%).

Q: And which of Zac Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan do you think will be best on…

Zac Goldsmith Sadiq Khan Don’t know
Keeping London safe from terrorist attacks 31% 24% 44%
Being an ambassador for London around the world 39% 29% 33%
Standing up for Londoners 29% 41% 30%
Having a good relationship with the national government in Westminster 49% 20% 32%
Understand the needs of Londoners 27% 43% 30%

Base: London adults (n=1,011).

 

  • Just 56% of Sadiq Khan voters say that the Labour candidate would be best at keeping London safe, compared with 72% of Conservatives who back their candidate.
  • 84% of Labour voters say that Sadiq Khan would be best at standing up for Londoners. 74% of Zac Goldsmith voters think he would be best at standing up for Londoners.

Priorities

House prices and public transport are considered the greatest priorities for the next Mayor of London

Q: Which, if any, of the following do you think should be the biggest priorities for the next Mayor of London?

%
House prices 54%
Public transport (buses, tubes etc) 54%
Cost of renting homes 52%
Security of London 51%
Crime and policing 49%
Economic development 36%
Transport links across the city (eg. Cycle lanes, road traffic etc) 32%
The environment 27%
Whether Britain stays in or leaves the European Union (EU) 26%
Airports 16%
Other 3%
None 1%

Base: London adults (n=1,011).

  • Housing is a greater priority for Labour voters than Conservatives.
    • House prices: 68% Sadiq Khan voters, 44% Zac Goldsmith voters
    • Cost of renting homes: 64% Sadiq Khan voters, 40% Zac Goldsmith voters
  • Security and airports are more likely to be named as priorities for the next Mayor by Zac Goldsmith voters than Sadiq Khan voters.
    • Security of London: 63% Goldsmith voters, 44% Khan voters
    • Crime & policing: 57% Goldsmith voters, 47% Khan voters
    • Airports: 25% Goldsmith voters, 13% Khan voters
  • Those who rent their home are most likely to say that the cost of renting (65%) and house prices (58%) and are the most important priorities for the Mayor. Those who own their home are most likely to say public transport (61%) and the security of London (55%) are the highest priorities.

 

 

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Date Published
21st March 2016
Client
ITV London / LBC
Methodology
ComRes interviewed 1,011 adults living in London online from 14th to 17th March 2016. Data were weighted to be representative of all adults living in London aged 18+. Data were also weighted by past vote recall to the London result on the 2015 General Election. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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