Sun EU Referendum Poll June 2016
EU referendum poll

Headline Findings

  • The Remain lead over Leave has fallen to one point, with a week to go until the vote itself. After likelihood to vote is taken into account, 46% say they would vote for Remain compared to 45% who say they would vote Leave, with 9% saying they don’t know. This is a decline since last month where the lead was 11 percentage points, and is by the far the narrowest lead seen in a ComRes poll which up to now has been showing healthy Remain leads.
  • Reflecting the importance of immigration in the EU debate, a similar proportion of British adults say that they are concerned about the number of EU migrants coming into the UK (47%) and about what will happen to the economy if the UK leaves the EU (49%). Indeed, the British public thinks Turkey joining the EU in the next 10 years is more likely than a recession happening if Britons votes to leave the EU (58% vs 49%).
  • Three in five Britons (61%) say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to tighten controls on immigration. Although British adults would not be happy if this hits their own pockets; with two-thirds (68%) saying that they would not being happy to pay any of their own personal annual income to tighten the control Britain has over immigration and reduce the number of EU migrants entering the UK.
  • Tom Mludzinski, Director of Political Polling said: “There has evidently been a significant move in the last few weeks. We had seen Remain holding a comfortable lead but after the debates and the agenda switching to immigration it has narrowed the gap with Leave now in touching distance. The final week will be crucial in deciding this result with both sides trying to motivate their core voters and battling over the final undecideds – who are more likely to be women than men.”

Findings in Detail

  1. At the upcoming referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, how will you vote on the following question? “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”
  All GB adults (turnout weighted) Those expressing a voting intention & turnout weighted
Remain 46% (-6) 51% (-6)
Leave 45% (+4) 49% (+6)
Don’t know 9% (+2) -

Base: GB adults (n=1,002). Changes since the last ComRes telephone poll for Daily Mail / ITV News (14-17 May).

  • Remain’s lead over Leave has been slashed to one point, with a decline in the proportion of people saying they will vote Remain (down six points since May to 46%) and an increase in the number saying they will vote Leave (up four points to 45%).
  • Once don’t knows are excluded, there is two point lead for Remain over Leave (51% vs 49%).

 

  1. How likely or unlikely do you think it is that…
  Very likely Fairly likely Fairly unlikely Very unlikely Don’t know NET: Likely NET: Unlikely
Turkey will join the EU in the next 10 years. 25% 33% 20% 16% 5% 58% 37%
Britain will leave the EU 9% 37% 39% 10% 4% 47% 49%
UK’s economy would go into recession if the UK leaves the EU 16% 33% 31% 17% 3% 49% 48%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002)

  • The majority of Britons (58%) say that they think it is likely that Turkey will join the EU in the next ten years, with a quarter (25%) saying that they think this is very likely; just 37% say they think Turkey’s accession unlikely.
    • Two-thirds of adults who say they will vote to leave the EU (68%) say that they think it is likely Turkey will join the EU in the next decade; just over a quarter (28%) think it is unlikely. Even among Remain voters, half think Turkey’s accession is likely (49%).
  • British adults are split as to what is going to happen in the vote next week. Equal proportions say they think it is likely (47%) and unlikely (49%) that Britain will leave the EU.
    • Those aged 65+ are mostly likely to think that Britain will leave the Union (56%).
  • Britons also have mixed expectations as to the economic impact of a Brexit. Half think it is likely (49%) that the UK’s economy would go into recession if the UK leaves the EU, though a similar proportion think it is unlikely (48%).
    • Labour voters seem to be more worried about the economic impact of Britain’s exit from the EU; two-thirds (65%) say that a recession is likely if the UK leaves the EU compared to just 42% of Conservative voters.
    • A quarter of Leave voters appear to still be voting Leave despite thinking it is likely that the UK’s economy would go into recession if Britain leaves the EU (26%).
  1. For each of the following pairs of statements, please tell me which one comes closest to your own view.
Option A % % Option B Don’t know
I am more worried what will happen to the economy if the UK leaves the EU 49% 47% I am more worried about the number of EU migrants coming into the UK 5%
I would accept a short term economic slowdown in order to tighten controls on immigration 61% 35% I would not accept a short term economic slowdown in order to tighten controls on immigration 5%
Overall the EU has more negatives 49% 48% Overall the EU has more positives 3%
I feel I know more about the EU now than I did at the start of the Referendum campaign 46% 53% I don’t feel I know any more about the EU now than I did at the start of the Referendum campaign 1%
The referendum has been good for British politics 41% 54% The referendum has been bad for British Politics 5%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002).

  • Britons are split as to whether they are more worried about what will happen to the economy if the UK leaves the EU (49%) or about the number of EU migrants coming to the UK (47%).
    • While Labour voters are more concerned about the economic effects of a Brexit (66% vs 32% concern about migrants), Conservative voters have more split opinions (44% report concern about the economy vs 50% who report concern about migrants).
  • Three in five Britons (61%) say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to tighten controls on immigration.
    • Adults from a higher social grade are least likely to say that they would be willing to accept a short term economic slowdown in order to tighten controls on immigration (52% AB vs 68% C2 and 62% DE).
  • British adults are split as to whether the EU overall has more positives (49%) than negatives (48%).
  • Around half of British adults (53%) say that they don’t feel they know any more about the EU now than they did at the start of the Referendum campaign; 46% say that they now know more.
  • Half of British adults (54%) say that the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU has been bad for British politics (54%); 41% think it has been good for it.
  1. How much, if anything, would you be happy to lose from your own personal annual income to tighten the control Britain has over immigration and reduce the number of EU migrants entering the UK.
  %
Nothing 68%
£1-50 6%
£50-100 5%
£100-250 3%
£250-500 4%
£500-1000 5%
£1000+ 9%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002).

  • Although three in five Britons (61%) say that they would accept a short term economic slowdown in order to tighten controls on immigration, this sentiment does not appear to continue if it hit their own income.
    • Two-thirds of British adults (68%) say that they would not be happy to lose any of their own personal annual income to tighten the control Britain has over immigration and reduce the number of EU migrants entering the UK.
    • This includes half of adults who say they will vote to leave the EU (52%).
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Date Published
14th June 2016
Client
The Sun
Methodology
ComRes interviewed 1,002 British adults aged 18+ from 9th-13th June 2016. Data were weighted to be representative of all GB adults aged 18+. ComRes sets quotas during fieldwork and weights the raw data on the following demographic information: age, gender, government office region and social grade. The sample includes both landline and mobile telephone numbers. Additionally the data is weighted by past vote recall. The voting intention figures are then modelled using the ComRes Likely Electorate Model to take account for known turnout patterns. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/

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