IoS / Sunday Mirror Political Poll

Voting intention, AV and political attitudes poll for Independent on Sunday / Sunday Mirror published 17 April 2011

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Date Published
16 Apr 2011

Further Description

A ComRes poll in The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow shows the No vote opening up a six-point lead in the referendum campaign.

Since January we have asked the official question, as it will appear on the ballot paper on 5 May:

At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?

                                  Jan     Feb      Mar     Now
Yes                             36%    40%    34%    37%
No                              30%    30%    37%    43%
Don't know            
     34%    30%    28%    21%

These figures have been adjusted to take into account people's likelihood to turn out to vote. We also asked people a specific question about voting in the referendum:

If there are no local or national elections in my area, it is hardly worth going to vote in the referendum on the voting system on the 5th of May.

Agree: 15%

Disagree: 68%

These "disagree" figures closely match those saying that they are "absolutely certain to vote" in a general election tomorrow.

We also tested referendum voting motivation by asking whether people agreed or disagreed with these statements:

My opinion of Nick Clegg will affect how I vote in the referendum on the voting system on the 5th of May.

Agree: 30%

Disagree: 52%

My opinion of David Cameron will affect how I vote in the referendum on the voting system on the 5th of May.

Agree: 37%

Disagree: 49%

This suggests that the "Yes" campaign could get more out of suggesting that a "Yes" vote would be a vote against David Cameron, in the way that the "No" campaign have urged people who do not like Nick Clegg to vote "No".

Voting intention

Conservative 35% (-2)
Labour 39% (-1)
Lib Dems 10% (-1)
Other 15% (+3)

Figures are compared with Independent on Sunday/ComRes poll, 13 March.

This would translate into a  Labour majority of 42 in the House of Commons. Worth noting continued pain for Lib Dems. Just 6 in 10 voters who "think of themselves as Lib Dems" would vote for the party now.

(Data in both tables do not add up to 100% due to rounding.)

Leader ratings

We asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following statements:

Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party.

______________            Dec      Jan       Now

Agree:                          17%      22%      24%

Disagree:                      32%      35%      38%

Don’t know:                   50%      43%      37%

Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats.

______________            Dec      Jan       Now

Agree:                           26%     28%      24%

Disagree:                      49%      49%      55%

Don’t know:                   25%      23%      21%

David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister.

______________            Dec       Jan       Now

Agree:                           38%      38%      37%

Disagree:                       41%      43%      46%

Don’t know:                    21%      19%      17%

The Coalition, one year on

Thinking back to the general election last year, I wish I had voted differently.

Agree: 16%

Disagree: 72%

Of 2010 Lib Dem voters, 37% wish they’d voted differently.

The coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats has probably worked out better than the Conservatives trying to go it alone.

Agree: 38%

Disagree: 37%

The coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats has probably worked out better than Labour and the Liberal Democrats trying to govern together.

Agree: 40%

Disagree: 36%

I am glad that Gordon Brown is no longer Prime Minister.

Agree: 64%

Disagree: 21%

More than one third of Labour voters (36%) are glad that Gordon Brown is no longer PM.

After nearly a year in government, the Coalition’s record is disappointing.

Agree: 56%

Disagree: 29%

Liberal Democrat voters (41%) are twice as likely as Conservative voters (20%) to say that the Coalition’s record is disappointing.

A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be better at protecting people’s jobs.

Agree: 32% (Jan 30%)

Disagree: 40% (Jan 38%)

Don’t know: 27% (Jan 32%)

The Liberal Democrats should pull out of the coalition if they don’t get the changes they want to the NHS reorganisation.

Agree: 41%

Disagree: 34%

The fact that David Cameron went to Eton makes it harder for him to be a good Prime Minister for the whole country.

Agree: 30%  (Dec 2009 20%)

Disagree: 52% (Dec 2009 70%)

Don’t know: 18% (Dec 2009 10%)

Defence policy

It is right for the UK to take military action against Colonel Gaddafi’s forces in Libya.

Agree: 41% (35% in March)

Disagree: 39% (43% in March)

The cuts in defence spending announced last year were smaller than in many other government departments, but they went too far and should be looked at again.

Agree: 55%

Disagree: 22%

Royal wedding

William has made a good choice of bride in Kate Middleton.

Agree: 70%

Disagree: 3%

I plan to watch some or all of the Royal Wedding live on television.

Agree: 48%

Disagree: 38%

Women (62%) are far more likely than men (35%) to say they plan to watch on TV.

Methodology note:  ComRes interviewed 2,003 GB adults online between 13 and 15 April 2011. Data were weighted to be representative of all adults and by past vote recall.

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