ITV News Scotland Battleground Poll

Poll of 1,000 Scots living in the the forty Scottish, Labour-held constituencies for ITV News.

COMRES / ITV NEWS POLL: SNP LANDSLIDE IN SCOTTISH LABOUR SEATS BUT MILIBAND FAVOURED AS PRIME MINISTER

In the first of its kind, a new ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has focused in on the 40 Labour-held seats in Scotland, revealing a massive 19-point swing from Labour to the Scottish National Party. On a uniform swing, this would hand the SNP control of around 28 seats currently held by Labour.

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In more positive news for the Labour Party, voters in these seats are much more likely to want Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister (49%) than David Cameron (29%). SNP voters are even more strongly opposed to David Cameron, with only 19% wanting to see him as Prime Minister.

While voters in these Labour-held seats are split about the best approach for the SNP to take in the event of a hung parliament, they lean towards helping Labour more than the Conservatives. No formal agreement (41%) is the most likely preference, followed by supporting a minority Labour government (21%) or joining a formal coalition with Labour (also 21%). Supporters of Scottish independence are significantly more likely than opponents to want the SNP to enter into an agreement with Labour.

Turning to voter intention, it’s clear that voting is heavily influenced by the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence. 81% of ‘Yes’ voters say they will vote SNP, while only 8% of ‘No’ voters say the same. The SNP have made significant headway in these once staunchly Labour seats, winning 30% of people who voted Labour in 2010. Labour remain ahead among those aged 55 and over (44% voting Labour versus 36% SNP), but the SNP are now well ahead among younger voters aged 18-34 years (46% SNP, 32% Labour) and 35-54 year olds (48% SNP, 33% Labour).

When considering whether to vote SNP or not, the main reason for voting for the party is wanting Scotland to be an independent country (56%), followed by feeling that Labour “no longer represents people like me” (35%). Nearly a third (30%) cite broken promises on devolution. On the other hand, 56% say they are voting for a party other than the SNP because they want to keep Scotland as part of the UK. 33% of non-SNP voters are influenced by a desire to avoid a Conservative-led government in Westminster.

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Date Published
31st March 2015
Client
ITV News
Methodology

ComRes interviewed 1,000 adults living in the forty parliamentary constituencies in Scotland which are currently represented by a Labour Member of Parliament. Fieldwork took place by telephone between 26th and 28th March 2015. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with data weighted to be demographically representative of all adults living in these constituencies. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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