Political Poll for The Independent and AV referendum survey

A public opinion poll on behalf of The Independent.

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Date Published
02 May 2011

Further Description

The No campaign goes into Thursday’s referendum on the voting system with a decisive lead of 66 to 34 per cent,  according to a ComRes poll for The Independent.

It suggests that opposition to a switch to the alternative vote (AV) is hardening.  Last week, ComRes found that 40 per cent will  vote Yes to AV and 60 per cent will back the current first-past-the-post system. The UK-wide figures are based on those people who are absolutely certain to vote in the referendum, with “don’t knows” excluded.

The latest survey found that 44 per cent of people say they are absolutely certain to vote. Some 15 per cent of this group say they have not yet make up their minds how they will vote. When “don’t knows” are included, the No camp enjoys a commanding lead of 56 to 29 per cent.

Current Labour supporters, who are seen as crucial by both camps, oppose AV by a margin of 60 to 40 per cent.  Conservative supporters reject AV by an overwhelming 88 to 12 per cent, while Liberal Democrat supporters back AV by a majority of 72 to 28 per cent.

According to ComRes, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has dropped to three points. Labour is on 37 per cent (down two points since a survey for The Independent on Sunday published on April 17), the Tories on 34 per cent (down one point), the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent (up five points) and other parties on 14 per cent (down two).  These figures would give Labour a majority of 26 in an election fought under first-past-the-post.

ComRes telephoned a random sample of 1033 adults across the United Kingdom on 28 April – 1 May 2011 (voting intention based on 1003 GB adults).  Data were weighted to be representative of all adults and by past vote recall.  The AV result is predicated on those who said they were “absolutely certain” to vote on 5 May.  ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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