With hours to go until the polls close in America and the winner of the 2012 US Presidential election is announced, our latest ComRes poll for Bell Pottinger highlights again the gulf between British and US politics. Among the British public at least, Obama is the overwhelming choice.
The opinion polls in America have shown the two candidates neck-and-neck, with Barack Obama enjoying a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in the popular vote. In the Electoral College, the FiveThirtyEight Forecast predicts an Obama win by 307 votes to 230. Though the margin looks comfortable, with the popular vote close, a late shift in just two states could radically change the result.
On this side of the Atlantic, the picture is very different. Our latest poll finds that if the British public had the vote Obama would be heading for a (re-)coronation. If given the chance, British voters would be six times more likely to choose Barack Obama, giving the sitting President an 84% share of the vote to Governor Romney’s 14%.
Q. If you were given a vote in the US Presidential Election on 6th November, would you most likely vote for Republican Candidate Mitt Romney or Democrat Candidate Barack Obama? [Excluding 'don't knows' and 'would not votes']
Among men, Governor Romney finds more support; men are twice as likely as women in the UK to vote for him. Generally though, the British public are rarely so united on a political question.
It seems that they may get their wish. In the betting market at least, where people are putting their hard earned cash behind their predictions, Betfair is showing Romney’s chances on the slide. Obama’s odds are currently 1-4 on, while Romney commands a lengthening 11-4. Indeed Paddy Power is already paying out on an Obama win, which is a brave move indeed.
Methodology note: ComRes interviewed 2,049 adults online from 26th to 28th October 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all British adults aged 18+. The above results are for respondents who expressed a choice (n=1467). ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data tables are available at www.comres.co.uk
ComRes Peers Panel Survey November 2012
ComRes's Peers Panel gives our clients a robust measurement of Peers' perceptions - allowing them to prioritise their communications challenges, identify target groups within this vital legislature, and evaluate the messaging which will influence views.
The next wave of this survey goes into field on 9th November 2012.
For more information, click HERE